The temporal evolution in disease phenotype of COVID-19 hospitalisation, intensive care and case fatality rates in cancer patients across the United Kingdom (UKCCP)

Background: People living with cancer are reported to be at increased risk of hospitalization and death following infection with acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This is proposed to be dependent on a combination of intrinsic patient and cancer factors such as cancer subtype, and emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants with differing pathogenicity. However, COVID-19 phenotype evolution across the pandemic from 2020 has not yet been systematically evaluated in cancer patients. Method(s): This study is a population-scale real-world evaluation of Coronavirus outcomes in the United Kingdom for cancer patients from 1st November 2020-31st August 2022. The cancer cohort comprises individuals from Public Health England's national cancer dataset, excluding individuals less than 18 years old. Case-outcome rates, including hospitalization, intensive care and casefatality rates were used to assess the evolution in disease phenotype of COVID-19 in cancer patients. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to compare risk of Coronavirus outcomes in the cancer cohort relative to the non-cancer population during the Omicron wave in 2022. Result(s): The cancer cohort comprised of 198,819 positive SARS-CoV-2 tests from 127,322 individual infections. Coronavirus case-outcome rates were evaluated by reference to 18,188,573 positive tests from 15,801,004 individual infections in the non-cancer population. From 2020 to 2022, the SARS-CoV-2 disease phenotype became less severe in both patients with cancer and the non-cancer population, though cancer patients remain at higher risk. In 2022, the relative risk of Coronavirus hospital admission, inpatient hospitalization, intensive care admission and mortality in cancer patients was 3.02x, 2.10x, 2.53x and 2.54x compared to the non-cancer population following multivariable adjustment, respectively. Higher risk of hospital admission and inpatient hospitalization were associated with receipt of B/T cell antibody and/or targeted therapy which also corresponded with an increased risk of Coronavirus mortality. Conclusion(s): The disease phenotype of SARS-CoV-2 in cancer patients in 2022 has evolved significantly from the disease phenotype in 2020. Direct effects of the virus in terms of SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization, intensive care and case fatality rates have fallen significantly over time. However, relative to the general population, people living with cancer and hematological malignancies remain at elevated risk. In order to mitigate the indirect effects of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in terms of disruption to cancer care, there should be increased focus on preventative measures. Used in conjunction with vaccination and early treatment programs, this will maximize quality of life for those with cancer during the ongoing pandemic and ensure the best cancer outcomes.

An Analysis of The Trend of Incidences and Fatality of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in East Java from 2015-2020: A Lesson From COVID-19

Background: Pulmonary tuberculosis is still a public health problem, and surveillance data analysis has not been done much. Recently a global pandemic of COVID-19 has the potential in disturbing TB elimination programs and treatment. This study aims to comprehensively analyse the incidence rate (IR) and Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of pulmonary tuberculosis in East Java from 2015–2020 and during COVID-19 and the strategies for optimizing tuberculosis disease control. Methodology: The study analyzed annual surveillance data using an analytical descriptive design. The Variables were analyzed with Spearman correlation with a level of evidence of 95% (p<0.05). Results: The prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis in East Java fluctuated from 2015–2020. In 2020 and during the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of cases and morbidity rates increased. Statistic results confirm the presence of a significant correlation between the values of Incidence rate (IR) and Case Fatality rate (CFR) (p = 0.032), IR and Treatment Success Rate (TSR) (p = 0.020), and CFR and TSR (p = 0.002). Population density is not correlated with the number of new cases (p = 0.667). Treatment rates have increased to 51%;cure and treatment rates have decreased to 76% and 89%, respectively, and there was a 4% increase in mortality during COVID-19. Conclusions: COVID-19 has tremendously affected the treatment of pulmonary TB cases in East Java, Indonesia by increasing the incidence rate and decreasing the fatality rate. The pandemic promotes fear in the community to check their medical status and improve the quality of their health in East Java. © The Authors retain the copyrights of this article, with first publication rights granted to Medsci Publications.

Liver biomarkers for prognosis in COVID-19

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2).Mortality attributable to COVID-19 remains considerably high, with case fatality rates as high as 8-11%. Early medical intervention in patients who are seriously and critically ill with COVID-19 reduces fatal outcomes. Thus, there is an urgent need to identify biomarkers that could help clinicians determine which patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection are at a higher risk of developing the most adverse outcomes, which include intensive care unit (ICU) admission, invasive ventilation, and death. In COVID-19 patients experiencing the most severe form of the disease, tests of liver function are frequently abnormal and liver enzymes are found to be elevated. For this reason, we examine the most promising liver biomarkers for COVID-19 prognosis in an effort to help clinicians predict the risk of ARDS, ICU admission, and death at hospital admission. In patients meeting hospitalization criteria for COVID-19, serum albumin < 36 g/L is an independent risk factor for ICU admission, with an AUC of 0.989, whereas lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) values > 365 U/L accurately predict death with an AUC of 0.943.The clinical scores COVID-GRAM and SOFA that include measures of liver function such as albumin, LDH, and total bilirubin are also good predictors of pneumonia development, ICU admission, and death, with AUC values ranging from 0.88 to 0.978.Thus, serum albumin and LDH, together with clinical risk scores such as COVID-GRAM and SOFA, are the most accurate biomarkers in the prognosis of COVID-19.Copyright © 2021 Sociedad Medica del Hospital General de Mexico. Published by Permanyer.

Assessment of Burden of COVID-19 Infection and the Dynamics in African Union Member States

Objectives: This study assessed the real-world burden of COVID-19 infection in African Union (AU) member states during the first 12 months of the pandemic using selected epidemiological measures. Method(s): Data were sourced from the African CDC and Our World in Data,for time period spanning February 2020 to January 2021. AU member states were classified into low, medium and high burden based on COVID-19 morbidity. We conducted descriptive and inferential analyses of the following epidemiological measures: morbidity and mortality rates (MMRs), case fatality rate (CFR), and case ratios. Result(s): A total of 3.2 million COVID-19 cases were reported during the first 12 months, with 2.6 million recoveries, 536,784 cases remaining active, and 77, 486 deaths. Most countries in AU experienced low burden of COVID-19 (49.1%, n=26) compared to 28.3% (n=15) with medium and 22.6% (n=12) with high burden of the disease. South Africa recorded the highest number of cases (1.31 million) followed by Morocco with 457,625 and Tunisia with 175,065 cases. Correspondently, death tolls for these countries were 36,467, 7,888 and 5,528 deaths, respectively. Of the total COVID-19 tests performed (83.8 million) during the first 12 months, 62.43% were from high burden countries. The least testing occurred in the medium burden (18.42%) countries. The overall CFR of AU was 2.21%. Morbidity rate of 327.52/105 population and mortality rate of 5.96/105 population were recorded during the period with significant (p<0.0001) variations across burden levels and regions. Continental morbidity and mortality rates of 17,359/105 population and 315.933/105 population were recorded with significant correlation (r=0.863, p<0.0001) between them and variations across selected epidemiological measures by COVID-19 burden levels. Conclusion(s): Understanding the true burden of the disease in AU countries is important for establishing the impact of the pandemic in the African continent and for intervention planning and deployment of resources including vaccines.Copyright © 2023

Trends in the Quality of Primary Care and Acute Care in Korea From 2008 to 2020: A Cross-sectional Study.

OBJECTIVES: Measuring the quality of care is paramount to inform policies for healthcare services. Nevertheless, little is known about the quality of primary care and acute care provided in Korea. This study investigated trends in the quality of primary care and acute care. METHODS: Case-fatality rates and avoidable hospitalization rates were used as performance indicators to assess the quality of primary care and acute care. Admission data for the period 2008 to 2020 were extracted from the National Health Insurance Claims Database. Case-fatality rates and avoidable hospitalization rates were standardized by age and sex to adjust for patients' characteristics over time, and significant changes in the rates were identified by joinpoint regression. RESULTS: The average annual percent change in age-/sex-standardized case-fatality rates for acute myocardial infarction was -2.3% (95% confidence interval, -4.6 to 0.0). For hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke, the age-/sex-standardized case-fatality rates were 21.8% and 5.9%, respectively in 2020; these rates decreased since 2008 (27.1 and 8.7%, respectively). The average annual percent change in age-/sex-standardized avoidable hospitalization rates ranged from -9.4% to -3.0%, with statistically significant changes between 2008 and 2020. In 2020, the avoidable hospitalization rates decreased considerably compared with the 2019 rate because of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The avoidable hospitalization rates and case-fatality rates decreased overall during the past decade, but they were relatively high compared with other countries. Strengthening primary care is an essential requirement to improve patient health outcomes in the rapidly aging Korean population.

The Rise of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Omicron Subvariant Pathogenicity.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, variants of the Betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2, the etiologic agent of COVID-19 disease, progressively decreased in pathogenicity up to the Omicron strain. However, the case fatality rate has increased from Omicron through each major Omicron subvariant (BA.2/BA.4, BA.5, XBB.1.5) in the United States of America. World data also mirror this trend. We show that the rise of Omicron pathogenicity is exponential, and we have modeled the case fatality rate of the next major subvariant as 0.0413, 2.5 times that of the Alpha strain and 60% of the original Wuhan strain which caused the greatest morbidity and mortality during the pandemic. Small-molecule therapeutics have been developed, and some of these, such as chlorpheniramine maleate, may be useful in the event of an Omicron subvariant of higher risk.

Covid-19 in Lebanon: Update, Challenges and Lessons Learned

Intro: The COVID-19 pandemic remains a public health problem threatening national and global health security. Early during the pandemic, countries and governments including Lebanon declared states of emergency and imposed strict public health measures including national lockdowns and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce the spread of the virus. Lebanon has been struggling with plethora of challenges at the social, economic, financial, political and healthcare levels before the start of the pandemic in the country in February 2020. Method(s): The aim of this study is to advance the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemiology in Lebanon pre- and post-vaccination as well as the gaps and challenges affecting recovery and response. We will present the evolution of total number of cases, PCR positivity rates, case-fatality rates an hospitalizations. Finding(s): We present the evolution of the clinical and melocular epidemiology of COVID-19 in Lebanon, national response prior and following the introduction of COVID-19 vaccines and the impact of the latter on the course of the pandemic in Lebanon, national challenges and successes as well as the need to reimagine a national health strategy. The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the vulnerability, gaps and needs of the Lebanese health infrastructure including epidemiologic surveillance, genomic surveillance, integrated and concerted data sharing, diagnostic capacity, community mobilization and risk communication. Conclusion(s): The COVID-19 pandemic has been an eye opener about the need to invest in systemic and equal improvement in national health strategies. This is key to prevent future pandemics and to protect global health security. National and international coordinated strategies for emergency preparedness, response and recovery are critically needed in order to support the continuous monitoring of potential threats. The national commitment to these important inherent components of a rapid response requires investment in human and technical expertise to reduce inequality in access to information and care.Copyright © 2023

Historical perspective: other human coronavirus infectious diseases, SARS and MERS

Alphacoronaviruses (HCoV-229E and HCoV-NL63) and betacoronaviruses (HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1) are common causes of upper respiratory tract infection in humans. SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV emerged in 2002 and 2012, respectively, with the potential of causing severe and lethal disease in humans, termed SARS and MERS, respectively. Bats appear to be the common natural source of SARS-like coronaviruses including SARS-CoV-1, but their role in MERS-CoV is less clear. Civet cats and dromedary camels are the intermediary animal sources for SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV, respectively. Nosocomial outbreaks are hallmarks of SARS and MERS. MERS patients with comorbidities or immunosuppression tend to progress more rapidly to respiratory failure and have a higher case fatality rate than SARS patients. SARS has disappeared since 2004, while there are still sporadic cases of MERS in the Middle East. Continued global surveillance is essential for SARS-like coronaviruses and MERS-CoV to monitor changing epidemiology due to viral variants.Copyright © ERS 2021.

Decreasing case fatality rates for patients with cirrhosis infected with SARS-CoV-2: a national COVID cohort collaborative (N3C) study

Background: The virulence and severity of SARS-CoV-2 infections have decreased over time in the general population due to vaccinations and improved antiviral treatments. Whether a similar trend has occurred in patients with cirrhosis is unclear. We used the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) to describe the outcomes over time in this patient population. Method(s): We utilized the N3C data set with uncensored dates of service to identify all chronic liver disease (CLD) patients with and without cirrhosis who had SARS-CoV-2 infection as of 9/10/2022. We described the observed 30-day case fatality rate by month of infection. We used adjusted Cox survival analyses to calculate relative hazard of death by month of infection compared to infection in March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Result(s): We identified 110,477 total CLD patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 between 3/2020-7/2022: 25,067 (23%) with cirrhosis and 85,410 (77%) without cirrhosis. Of the 110,477 total CLD patients, 39,595 (36%) were vaccinated and 70,882 (64%) unvaccinated. The overall observed 30-day case fatality rate during the entire study period was 1.4% (1,198) for CLD patients without cirrhosis and 7.7% (1,930) for those with cirrhosis. The observed 30-day case fatality rate by month of infection is displayed in Fig. 1. Compared to infection in March 2020, the adjusted hazard of death at 30 days for infection in July 2022 was HR 0.083 (95% CI 0.026-0.27) for CLD patients without cirrhosis and HR 0.32 (95% CI 0.17-0.61) for those with cirrhosis. Conclusion(s): In this N3C study, we found that the observed 30-day case fatality rate decreased progressively for both CLD patients with and without cirrhosis. Yet, the decrease in all-cause mortality was four times greater for patients without cirrhosis compared to those with cirrhosis. Despite improvements in SARS-CoV-2 treatments, patients with cirrhosis remain at risk of adverse outcomes. (Figure Presented).

Seroprevalence of SARS-Cov-2 Virus Infection In Kermanshah, Iran: A Population-based Cross-Sectional Study

Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a general population from Kermanshah province, Iran. Method(s): The present study was a population-based cross-sectional design conducted in Kermanshah province in 2020. Sampling was performed in a multi-stage process, and 1967 participants were considered, and also 174 interviewers were assigned to collect data online. Then, 5 mL of blood sample was taken from every participant. The blood samples were centrifuged with the ELISA method to detect SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG and IgM antibodies in serum samples. Seropositive prevalence was adjusted by means of survey analysis. Case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR) were estimated. Result(s): A total of 1967 people from 14 cities of the province participated in the study. The mean age of participants was 35.7+/-16.9, and 50.4% were female. The lowest and highest seroprevalence was found in the cities of Paveh (2.3% [0.3-4.2]) and Harsin (61.6% [54.7-68.5]), respectively. The CFR and IFR in men and women were 3.4 vs. 3.3 and 0.1 vs. 0.3. The aged 60 years or older had the highest CFR and IFR with 11.2 and 3.7%, respectively. Conclusion(s): The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and IFR among the general population of Kermanshah province was 18.3 and 0.3%, respectively. The results of this study can assist the policymaker in assessing risk factors, and transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a population and implementing preventive and control interventions.Copyright © 2023 Shadmani et al.

Trends in Covid-19 Admissions and Deaths among People with Hiv in South Africa

Background: South Africa experienced five COVID-19 waves and over 90% of the population have developed immunity. HIV prevalence among adults is 19% and over 2 million people have uncontrolled viral loads, posing a risk for poor COVID-19 outcomes. Using national hospital surveillance data, we aimed to investigate trends in admission and factors associated with in-hospital COVID-19 mortality among people with HIV (PWH) in South Africa. Method(s): Data between March 5, 2020 and May 28, 2022 from the national COVID-19 hospital surveillance system, SARS-CoV-2 case linelist and Electronic Vaccine Data System were linked and analysed. A wave was defined as the period for which weekly incidence was >=30 cases/100,000 people. Descriptive statistics were employed for admissions and mortality trends. Postimputation random effect multivariable logistic regression models compared (a) characteristics of PWH and HIV-uninfected individuals, and (b) factors associated with mortality among PWH. Result(s): 68.7% (272,287/396,328) of COVID-19 admissions had a documented HIV status. PWH accounted for 8.4% (22,978/272,287) of total admissions, and 9.8%, 8.0%, 6.8%, 12.2% and 6.7% of admissions in the D614G, Beta, Delta, Omicron BA.1 and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 waves respectively. The case fatality ratio (CFR) among PWH and HIV-uninfected was 24.3% (5,584/22,978) vs 21.7% (54,110/249,309) overall, and in the respective waves was 23.7% vs 20.4% (D614G), 27.9% vs 26.6% (Beta), 26.2% vs 24.5% (Delta), 18.2% vs 9.1% (Omicron BA.1) and 16.8% vs 5.5% (Omicron BA.4/BA.5). Chronic renal disease, malignancy and past TB were more likely, and hypertension and diabetes were less likely in PWH compared to HIV-uninfected individuals. Among PWH, along with older age, male sex and presence of a comorbidity, there was a lower odds of mortality among individuals with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (aOR 0.6;95% CI 0.4-0.8);>=1 dose vaccination (aOR 0.1;95% CI 0.1-0.1);and those admitted in the Delta (aOR 0.9;95% CI 0.8-0.9), Omicron BA.1 (aOR 0.5;95% CI 0.5-0.6) and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 (aOR 0.5;95% CI 0.4-0.7) waves compared to the D614G wave. PWH with CD4< 200 had higher odds of in-hospital mortality (aOR 1.9;95% CI 1.8-2.1). Conclusion(s): In South Africa, mortality among PWH was less likely in the Delta and Omicron waves but PWH had a disproportionate burden of mortality during the two Omicron waves. Prior immunity protected against mortality, emphasizing the importance of COVID-19 vaccination among PWH, particularly PWH with immunosuppression.

RESPIRATORY DISEASE FACTORS LINK WITH REDUCED SARS-CoV-2 SUSCEPTIBILITY IN PWH

Background: Despite favorable vaccine responses of people with HIV (PWH), susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 (SCv2) infection and increased risk of COVID-19 in immunocompromised PWH continue to be of concern. Here, we searched the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) with>9500 actively enrolled, optimally treated PWH to identify factors associated with SCv2 infection in the pre-and postvaccination area. Method(s): We utilized information on SCv2 events reported to the SHCS in 2020 -2021. To detect asymptomatic infection, we screened pre-pandemic (2019) and pandemic (2020-2021) bio-banked plasma for SCv2 antibodies (Ab). SCv2+ and matched SCv2- PWH were additionally screened for Abs to circulating human coronaviruses (HCoV). Data were compared to HIV negative (HIV-) controls. SCv2 data and >26 behavioral, immunologic and disease-parameters available in the SHCS data base were analyzed by logistic regression, conditional logistic regression, and Bayesian multivariate regression. Result(s): Considering information on the SCv2 status of 6270 SHCS participants, neither HIV-1 viral load nor CD4+ T cell levels were linked with increased SCv2 infection risk. COVID-19-linked hospitalization (87/982) and case fatality rates (8/982) were low, but slightly higher than in the general Swiss population when stratified by age. Compared to HIV-, PWH had lower SCv2 IgG responses (median effect size= -0.48, 95%-Credibility-Interval=[-0.7, -0.28]). Consistent with earlier findings, high HCoV Abs pre-pandemic (2019) were associated with a lower risk of a subsequent SCv2-infection and, in case or infection, with higher Ab responses. Examining behavioral factors unrelated to the HIV-status, people living in single-person households were less at risk of SCv2 infection (aOR= 0.77 [0.66,0.9]). We found a striking, highly significant protective effect of smoking on SCv2 infection risk (aOR= 0.46 [0.38,0.56], p=2.6*10-14) which was strongest in 2020 prior to vaccination and was even comparable to the effect of early vaccination in 2021. This impact of smoking was highly robust, occurred even in previous smokers and was highest for heavy smokers. Conclusion(s): Our unbiased cohort screen identified two controversially discussed factors, smoking and cross-protection by HCoV responses to be linked with reduced susceptibility to SCv2, validating their effect for the general population. Overall weaker SCv2 Ab responses in PWH are of concern and need to be monitored to ensure infection- and vaccine-mediated protection from severe disease.

The role of booster vaccination in decreasing COVID-19 age-adjusted case fatality rate: Evidence from 32 countries.

Background: The global COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing, and cross-country and cross-period variation in COVID-19 age-adjusted case fatality rates (CFRs) has not been clarified. Here, we aimed to identify the country-specific effects of booster vaccination and other features that may affect heterogeneity in age-adjusted CFRs with a worldwide scope, and to predict the benefit of increasing booster vaccination rate on future CFR. Method: Cross-temporal and cross-country variations in CFR were identified in 32 countries using the latest available database, with multi-feature (vaccination coverage, demographic characteristics, disease burden, behavioral risks, environmental risks, health services and trust) using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). After that, country-specific risk features that affect age-adjusted CFRs were identified. The benefit of booster on age-adjusted CFR was simulated by increasing booster vaccination by 1-30% in each country. Results: Overall COVID-19 age-adjusted CFRs across 32 countries ranged from 110 deaths per 100,000 cases to 5,112 deaths per 100,000 cases from February 4, 2020 to Jan 31, 2022, which were divided into countries with age-adjusted CFRs higher than the crude CFRs and countries with age-adjusted CFRs lower than the crude CFRs (n = 9 and n = 23) when compared with the crude CFR. The effect of booster vaccination on age-adjusted CFRs becomes more important from Alpha to Omicron period (importance scores: 0.03-0.23). The Omicron period model showed that the key risk factors for countries with higher age-adjusted CFR than crude CFR are low GDP per capita and low booster vaccination rates, while the key risk factors for countries with higher age-adjusted CFR than crude CFR were high dietary risks and low physical activity. Increasing booster vaccination rates by 7% would reduce CFRs in all countries with age-adjusted CFRs higher than the crude CFRs. Conclusion: Booster vaccination still plays an important role in reducing age-adjusted CFRs, while there are multidimensional concurrent risk factors and precise joint intervention strategies and preparations based on country-specific risks are also essential.

Associations between institutional-social-ecological factors and COVID -19 case-fatality: Evidence from 134 countries using multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR).

During the period in which the Omicron coronavirus variant was rapidly spreading, the impact of the institutional-social-ecological dimensions on the case-fatality rate was rarely afforded attention. By adopting the diagnostic social-ecological system (SES) framework, the present paper aims to identify the impact of institutional-social-ecological factors on the case-fatality rate of COVID-19 in 134 countries and regions and test their spatial heterogeneity. Using statistical data from the Our World In Data website, the present study collected the cumulative case-fatality rate from 9 November 2021 to 23 June 2022, along with 11 country-level institutional-social-ecological factors. By comparing the goodness of fit of the multiple linear regression model and the multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model, the study demonstrated that the effects of SES factors exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity in relation to the case-fatality rate of COVID-19. After substituting the data into the MGWR model, six SES factors were identified with an R square of 0.470 based on the ascending effect size: COVID-19 vaccination policy, age dependency ratio, press freedom, gross domestic product (GDP), COVID-19 testing policy, and population density. The GWR model was used to test and confirm the robustness of the research results. Based on the analysis results, it is suggested that the world needs to meet four conditions to restore normal economic activity in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic: (i) Countries should increase their COVID-19 vaccination coverage and maximize COVID-19 testing expansion. (ii) Countries should increase public health facilities available to provide COVID-19 treatment and subsidize the medical costs of COVID-19 patients. (iii) Countries should strictly review COVID-19 news reports and actively publicize COVID-19 pandemic prevention knowledge to the public through a range of media. (iv) Countries should adopt an internationalist spirit of cooperation and help each other to navigate the COVID-19 pandemic. The study further tests the applicability of the SES framework to the field of COVID-19 prevention and control based on the existing research, offering novel policy insights to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic that coexists with long-term human production and life for a long time.

Socio-Demographic Depletion Due to COVID-19 Impact and Government Intervention: A Review in Bangladesh

COVID-19 known as coronavirus disease, has been dominating the headlines all over the world since about a year ago which is now almost under control. The World Health Organization (WHO) has labeled it a pandemic. Bangladesh is struggling with this virus with its scarce resources. Nearly two million people have been reported as confirmed cases of coronavirus disease in 185 countries worldwide in the five months after the virus first emerged in December 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic affected people directly or indirectly all over the world. There has been a slowdown in all sectors worldwide and most of the global population was placed under lockdown. The families of 43.9 percent of the students might live in poverty, and export revenues from RMG fell by 18.12% from the previous year. Households in Chittagong city corporation experienced the least decrease in average income (11.7%) while the households in Sylhet city corporation experienced the most reduction in average income (63.4%). This COVID-19 created a widespread global shock. The government of Bangladesh has declared several stimulus plans worth a combined total of about USD 11.90 billion for the agricultural sector to ensure the country's food and nutritional security, for doctors, nurses, and the homeless for social safety, and for business sectors including small and medium enterprises and cottage industries at the early age of pandemic. There were 23 COVID-19 stimulus packages total across the nation, with a total outlay of USD 1.23 billion which is 4.44% of GDP. Approximately USD 3,529 million for the service sector and the impacted industries, USD 589 million to cover workers' salaries/allowances, and those of staff working in industries focused on exports were allocated as a package to tackle the serious impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.Copyright © 2023, Science Publications. All rights reserved.

Trends and risk factors of in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19 in Germany

Background: Unselected data of nationwide studies of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 is still sparse, but these data are of outstanding interest not to exceed hospital capacities and to avoid overloading of national health-care systems. Purpose(s): Thus, we sought to analyze seasonal/regional trends, predictors of in-hospital case-fatality and mechanical ventilation (MV) in patients with COVID-19 in Germany. Method(s): We used the German nationwide inpatient sample to analyze all hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis in Germany between January 1st and December 31st in 2020 (source: RDC of the Federal Statistical Office and the Statistical Offices of the federal states, DRG Statistics 2020, own calculations). Covid-19-inpatients with MV vs. without MV and survivors vs. non-survivors were compared. Logistic regression models were calculated to investigate associations between patients' characteristics as well as adverse events and i) necessity of MV and ii) in-hospital death. Result(s): We analyzed data of 176,137 hospitalizations of patients with confirmed COVID-19-infection. Among those, 31,607 (17.9%) died, whereby in-hospital case-fatality grew exponentially with age. Cardiovascular comorbidities were common in hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19-infections: Overall, almost half of the patients (46.8%;n=82,480) had arterial hypertension and 25,574 (14.4%) had a diagnosis of coronary artery disease. In 60.7% (n=106,913) of the hospitalizations, pneumonia was reported, 8.6% (n=15,061) had an acute infection of the upper or lower airways other than pneumonia, and 6.6% (n=11,594) suffered from an acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) during hospitalization Age >=70 years (OR 5.91, 95% CI 5.70-6.13, P<0.001), pneumonia (OR 4.58, 95% CI 4.42-4.74, P<0.001) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (OR 8.51, 95% CI 8.12-8.92, P<0.001) were strong predictors of in-hospital death. Most COVID-19-patients were treated in hospitals in urban areas (n=92,971) associated with lowest case-fatality (17.5%) as compared to hospitals in suburban (18.3%) or rural areas (18.8%). MV demand was highest in November/December 2020 (32.3%, 20.3%) in patients between 6th and 8th age-decade. In the first age-decade, 78 of 1861 children (4.2%) with COVID-19-infection were treated with MV and five of them died (0.3%). Conclusion(s): The results of our study indicate seasonal and regional variations concerning number of COVID-19-patients, necessity of MV and casefatality in Germany. These findings may help to ensure flexible allocation of intensive care (human) resources, which is essential for managing enormous societal challenges worldwide to avoid overloaded regional healthcare systems.

COVID-19 infection and its impact on case-fatality in patients with pulmonary embolism

Background: Although a high prevalence of pulmonary embolism (PE) has been reported as a complication during severe COVID-19 infections in critical ill patients, nationwide data of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 with PE is still limited. Thus, we sought to analyze seasonal trends and predictors of in-hospital case-fatality in patients with COVID-19 and PE in Germany. Method(s): We used the German nationwide inpatient sample to analyze all data on hospitalizations for COVID-19 patients with and without PE in Germany during the year 2020 and to compare changes of PE prevalence to 2019. Result(s):We analyzed data of 176,137 hospitalizations because of COVID- 19 in 2020. Among those, PE was recorded in 1.9% (n=3,362) of discharge or death certificates. Almost one third of patients with COVID-19 and PE died during the in-hospital course (28.7%). The case-fatality rate increased with patients' age peaking in the 9th life-decade. Regardless of COVID-19, 196,203 inpatients were diagnosed with PE in Germany between 2019 and 2020. The number of PE hospitalizations were widely equally distributed between both years (98,485 vs. 97,718), while the case-fatality rate of all patients with PE was slightly lower in 2019 compared to 2020 (12.7% vs. 13.1%, P<0.001). In contrast, considerable differences in prevalence and case-fatality were demonstrated in 2020 regarding PE patients with and without COVID-19 infection (28.7% vs. 13.1%, P<0.001) (Figure 1). A COVID-19-infection was associated with a 2.8-fold increased risk of casefatality in patients with PE (OR 2.81, 95% CI 1.66-2.12, P<0.001). Conclusion(s): In Germany, the prevalence of PE events complicating hospitalizations was similar in 2019 and 2020. However, the fatality rate among patients with COVID-19-associated PE was substantially higher than that in those without either COVID-19 or PE, indicating an additive prognostic effect of these two conditions.

A new method for accurate calculation of case fatality rates during a pandemic: Mathematical deduction based on population-level big data

Background: During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is difficult to accurately estimate the case fatality rate (CFR) because many calculation methods do not account for the delay between case confirmation and disease outcome. Taking the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) as an example, this study aimed to develop a new method for CFR calculation while the pandemic was ongoing. Methods: We developed a new method for CFR calculation based on the following formula: number of deaths divided by the number of cases T days before, where T is the average delay between case confirmation and disease outcome. An objective law was found using simulated data that states if the hypothesized T is equal to the true T, the calculated real-time CFR remains constant;whereas if the hypothesized T is greater (or smaller) than the true T, the real-time CFR will gradually decrease (or increase) as the days progress until it approaches the true CFR. Results: Based on the discovered law, it was estimated that the true CFR of COVID-19 at the initial stage of the pandemic in China, excluding Hubei Province, was 0.8%;and in Hubei Province, it was 6.6%. The calculated CFRs predicted the death count with almost complete accuracy. Conclusions: The method could be used for the accurate calculation of the true CFR during a pandemic, instead of waiting until the end of the pandemic, whether the pandemic is under control or not. It could provide those involved in outbreak control a clear view of the timeliness of case confirmations. © 2023 The Author(s)

Temporal dynamics and fatality of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Bangladesh.

Background and Aims: Since the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, multiple new variants have emerged posing an increased risk to global public health. This study aimed to investigate SARS-CoV-2 variants, their temporal dynamics, infection rate (IFR) and case fatality rate (CFR) in Bangladesh by analyzing the published genomes. Methods: We retrieved 6610 complete whole genome sequences of the SARS-CoV-2 from the GISAID (Global Initiative on Sharing all Influenza Data) platform from March 2020 to October 2022, and performed different in-silico bioinformatics analyses. The clade and Pango lineages were assigned by using Nextclade v2.8.1. SARS-CoV-2 infections and fatality data were collected from the Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), Bangladesh. The average IFR was calculated from the monthly COVID-19 cases and population size while average CFR was calculated from the number of monthly deaths and number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Results: SARS-CoV-2 first emerged in Bangladesh on March 3, 2020 and created three pandemic waves so far. The phylogenetic analysis revealed multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 variant(s) into Bangladesh with at least 22 Nextstrain clades and 107 Pangolin lineages with respect to the SARS-CoV-2 reference genome of Wuhan/Hu-1/2019. The Delta variant was detected as the most predominant (48.06%) variant followed by Omicron (27.88%), Beta (7.65%), Alpha (1.56%), Eta (0.33%) and Gamma (0.03%) variant. The overall IFR and CFR from circulating variants were 13.59% and 1.45%, respectively. A time-dependent monthly analysis showed significant variations in the IFR (p = 0.012, Kruskal-Wallis test) and CFR (p = 0.032, Kruskal-Wallis test) throughout the study period. We found the highest IFR (14.35%) in 2020 while Delta (20A) and Beta (20H) variants were circulating in Bangladesh. Remarkably, the highest CFR (1.91%) from SARS-CoV-2 variants was recorded in 2021. Conclusion: Our findings highlight the importance of genomic surveillance for careful monitoring of variants of concern emergence to interpret correctly their relative IFR and CFR, and thus, for implementation of strengthened public health and social measures to control the spread of the virus. Furthermore, the results of the present study may provide important context for sequence-based inference in SARS-CoV-2 variant(s) evolution and clinical epidemiology beyond Bangladesh.